NIW Approval Rate at a Historic Low? 2026 Data and Response Strategy
Third-party data suggests EB-2 NIW first-instance approval rates dropped to about 35.7% in Q4 2025 and recovered to around 44% in Q1 2026, with post-RFE approval rates as low as 5.9%. This article clarifies the data sources, explains the real reasons behind the decline, and offers actionable response steps.
NIW Approval Rate at a Historic Low? 2026 Data and Response Strategy #
Key Takeaways
- Third-party data shows EB-2 NIW first-instance approval rates dropped to roughly 35.7% in Q4 2025 (a record low) and rebounded to around 44% in Q1 2026
- Post-RFE approval rates are extremely low — some estimates put them around 5.9%, meaning it is very hard to recover after an RFE
- USCIS does not publish official Dhanasar-specific approval statistics; all circulating figures come from third-party platforms such as Lawfully and GreenwayAI, with wide methodology differences
- The decline is driven less by "stricter standards" and more by applicant pool growth, uneven material quality, and weak Dhanasar alignment
- The response strategy is concrete: write a specific proposed endeavor, support it with third-party verifiable evidence, ensure recommender independence, and maintain traceable citations
In June 2026, social media and immigration forums circulated a set of alarming figures: "NIW approval rates have dropped to 35%," "post-RFE approval is under 6%." These headlines generate anxiety, but before reacting, it is important to separate where the numbers come from, how they are calculated, and what they actually mean for your case.
This article synthesizes public law-firm analyses, third-party data platforms (Visa Franchise, GreenwayAI), and existing USCIS policy documents. Important caveat: USCIS has not published official Dhanasar-specific approval statistics; all circulating numbers are third-party estimates with significant methodology differences. This article is not legal advice. For case-specific evidence evaluation, consult a licensed U.S. immigration attorney.
The Numbers: How Wide Is the Discrepancy #
Circulating NIW approval-rate figures come from three main sources, and they differ substantially:
| Source | Period | First-instance approval rate | Post-RFE approval rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Franchise | Q4 2025 | ~35.7% | Not separately disclosed |
| Visa Franchise | Q1 2026 | ~44% | Not separately disclosed |
| GreenwayAI | 2025-2026 aggregate | ~63.4% (based on 74,392 decisions) | ~5.9% (375 of 6,362) |
| Social/forums | Mixed | ~54% | Very low |
35.7%, 44%, 54%, 63.4% — these figures appear contradictory but actually reflect different samples, time periods, and statistical methodologies. For example, GreenwayAI's 63.4% is aggregated across multiple quarters, while Visa Franchise's 35.7% is a single-quarter trough. Quoting any single number as "the NIW approval rate is X%" is misleading.
Why the Numbers Differ So Much #
The discrepancy in approval-rate figures comes down to three methodology issues:
How the numerator and denominator are defined
Some statistics use denial + approval as the denominator; others count "RFE not responded" as denial; still others exclude withdrawals. For the same quarter, these three approaches can produce 40%, 55%, and 65% — completely different numbers from the same underlying data.
Sample coverage
USCIS FOIA data typically lags by several months to a year. Third-party platforms either estimate from FOIA or rely on user self-reporting. Self-reported samples are inherently biased — denied applicants are more likely to share their outcomes, while approved applicants stay quiet.
Pre- vs. post-Dhanasar coverage
Matter of Dhanasar (2016) effectively loosened the NIW standard. Some statistics mix pre-2016 and post-2016 data, which depresses long-run averages. Always confirm the time period a number covers.
Rather than obsessing over "is the rate 40% or 60%?", focus on the trend and the quality of your own case. The trend is clear: relative to the 2022 peak, 2025-2026 approval rates have declined. That is a fact. But the decline does not mean "NIW is no longer viable" — it means material quality matters more than ever.
The Real Reasons Behind the Decline #
It is inaccurate to attribute the decline to "USCIS tightening the standard." USCIS has not issued any new NIW denial criteria in 2025-2026. The Dhanasar three-prong framework (see Dhanasar Explained) remains the adjudication standard. The real reasons are structural:
Reason 1: The applicant pool has grown substantially #
STEM-background, industry-background, and even some non-traditional-field applicants are now filing NIW. As the pool grows, uneven material quality naturally pulls down aggregate approval rates. This is not USCIS getting stricter — it is sample composition shifting.
Reason 2: Proposed endeavors are written too vaguely #
Dhanasar's first prong requires the proposed endeavor to have substantial merit and national importance. Many denied cases describe the endeavor too broadly — for example, "advancing AI applications in healthcare." Such a description gives the adjudicator no way to assess the specific national-level impact of your work.
Reason 3: Evidence lacks third-party verifiability #
USCIS PA-2025-03 (January 2025) made it explicit: recommendation letters and business plans need to be supported by other independent evidence. Many applicants still pile up letters but the claims in those letters cannot be corroborated in their papers, citations, patents, or media coverage — which becomes a negative signal.
Reason 4: Insufficient proportion of independent recommenders #
The ratio and quality of independent recommenders directly affect how the adjudicator views your "national impact." If all letters come from advisors, collaborators, or colleagues at the same company, USCIS will question the objectivity of those endorsements.
Approval rates dropping from 90%+ to around 50% is mainly driven by applicant-pool changes and stricter execution of evidence requirements — not by USCIS issuing a new standard. The Dhanasar framework is unchanged. What you can control is to make your case visibly stronger than the average.
Why Post-RFE Approval Rates Are So Low #
The very low post-RFE approval rate (around 5.9%-10%) is a widely discussed phenomenon. There are two layers to this:
| Layer | Explanation |
|---|---|
| RFE itself is a strong signal | Receiving an RFE usually means the adjudicator already sees a material gap. An RFE is not "just submit one more document" — it signals your case is at the edge of denial |
| Uneven RFE response quality | Many applicants treat the RFE as a task to "add a few recommendation letters," failing to address each specific adjudicator concern |
| Time pressure | The RFE response window is typically 30-87 days; many applicants submit weaker materials under pressure than their original filing |
The first thing after receiving an RFE is not to immediately start gathering documents. It is: parse each adjudicator concern, assess the probability of recovery, and decide whether to respond or refile. If the original endeavor description has a fundamental flaw, simply adding recommendation letters rarely saves the case. In that situation, consult an attorney to evaluate refile vs. respond.
5 Actions Applicants Can Take Immediately #
Regardless of how approval rates move, what you control is always case quality. Here are the highest-priority actions:
Write the proposed endeavor to be specific and verifiable
Do not write "advancing AI applications in healthcare." Write: "The X method developed for Y modeling solves the Z problem in the W population, and has been adopted by Institution A." The more specific the endeavor, the easier Dhanasar prong one becomes.
Replace self-claims with third-party evidence
Papers, citations, patents, media coverage, adopted technical reports, conference invitations — these are what USCIS actually weighs. Recommendation letters exist to weave these objective exhibits into a narrative, not to replace them.
Make independent recommenders a majority
Of 5-7 recommendation letters, at least 3-4 should come from independent recommenders — external experts who learned about your work through your papers, with no collaboration relationship. See How to Find Independent Reviewers.
Make citations and impact traceable
Maintain your Google Scholar profile, and make sure citations trace back to specific papers. If your work is cited by policy documents, industry reports, or standards, that carries more weight than pure academic citations.
After an RFE, assess before responding
Do not rush to add materials after receiving an RFE. First parse the concerns, assess the probability of recovery, and decide whether to respond or refile. If the case has a fundamental flaw, refiling a higher-quality petition is often more cost-effective than forcing a response.
FAQ #
How low has the NIW approval rate actually gone?
USCIS does not publish official Dhanasar-specific approval rates. Third-party data varies widely: Visa Franchise shows ~35.7% first-instance in Q4 2025 and ~44% in Q1 2026; GreenwayAI aggregate shows ~63.4%. Always confirm sample coverage and methodology when reading these numbers. The trend — a decline from the 2022 peak — is clear.
Does the decline mean NIW is no longer worth pursuing?
No. The Dhanasar framework has not changed, and USCIS has not issued new denial criteria. The decline is primarily driven by applicant-pool growth and uneven material quality. Cases that are visibly stronger than the average still have a high probability of approval.
Can a case still be recovered after an RFE?
Yes, but it is difficult. Third-party data puts post-RFE approval rates at around 5.9%-10%. The key to recovery is not adding more recommendation letters but addressing each specific adjudicator concern. If the case has a fundamental flaw, refiling is often more cost-effective. Consult an attorney after receiving an RFE.
Is filing NIW in 2026 still worth it?
It depends on your evidence strength and long-term plans. One of NIW's core values is locking in an EB-2 priority date early — that is unaffected by approval-rate fluctuations. Even with a distant priority date, you have years to strengthen evidence and evaluate an EB1A upgrade. As long as your endeavor is specific and verifiable with third-party support, NIW remains a high-value path.
Can GloryAbroad help improve my approval odds?
GloryAbroad can help you organize academic and industry evidence, match independent recommenders, plan peer-review invitations, and optimize your proposed endeavor narrative. We do not provide legal advice. Questions about I-140 eligibility, legal RFE response, or refile decisions should be handled by a licensed U.S. immigration attorney.
Summary #
"NIW approval rates at a historic low" is an oversimplified headline. The reality: USCIS does not publish official Dhanasar-specific rates, third-party figures vary widely due to sample and methodology differences, but relative to the 2022 peak, 2025-2026 approval rates have declined — driven mainly by applicant-pool changes and stricter evidence execution, not by a change in standards.
What you control is case quality. Write the proposed endeavor to be specific, replace self-claims with verifiable third-party evidence, ensure independent recommenders are a majority, maintain citation traceability, and assess before responding to an RFE — these five actions are far more valuable than any approval-rate forecast. This is also GloryAbroad's service focus: building external recognition first through independent-recommender matching and peer-review invitations, then optimizing the evidence narrative. For legal judgments, consult a licensed U.S. immigration attorney.