2023 NIW/EB1A Year in Review: Data, Trends, and 2024 Outlook
A comprehensive review of FY2023 NIW/EB1A key data and policy changes, with analysis of 2024 adjudication trends, priority date forecasts, and strategic recommendations.
2023 NIW/EB1A Year in Review: Data, Trends, and 2024 Outlook #
Key Takeaways
- FY2023 NIW filings reached 39,810 (+80%), approval rate approximately 80%, denial volume surged 17.5x
- FY2023 EB1A approval rate was approximately 58%, also facing a tightening trend
- Three major policy changes: NIW Premium Processing opened (March), USCIS evidence type updates (September), AI Executive Order (October)
- EB-2 China priority date retrogressed to June 2019 at the start of FY2024; EB-1 remains current
- 2024 Outlook: Filing volume will continue growing, approval rates may drop to 70-75%, USCIS new fee rule takes effect
As 2023 draws to a close, it has been a year of dramatic change and uncertainty for NIW and EB1A applicants. Filing volumes hit historic highs, approval rates continued to decline, policies were frequently updated, and priority dates retrogressed sharply -- each change has affected the green card journey of countless Chinese researchers and professionals in the United States.
This article provides a comprehensive review of the 2023 (primarily FY2023, October 2022 through September 2023) NIW/EB1A application landscape across three dimensions: data, policy, and trends, followed by an outlook and strategic recommendations for 2024.
1. FY2023 Core Data Review #
NIW (EB-2 National Interest Waiver) #
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Volume | ~11,000 | ~22,000 | 39,810 | Surging for three consecutive years |
| Approvals | ~10,500 | ~21,000 | ~31,800 | Absolute approval numbers growing |
| Approval Rate | ~95% | ~96% | ~80% | Notable decline |
| Denials | ~100 | ~200 | ~3,500 | 17.5x surge |
| RFE Rate | Est. 5-8% | Est. 8-12% | Est. 15-20% | Continuously rising |
Key to Interpreting the Data: Many people see the 80% approval rate and think "not bad," but the trend is concerning. The 95-96% approval rates of FY2021-2022 were to some extent the result of a "special period" (post-COVID backlog clearance + lenient adjudication). An 80% rate may be closer to NIW's "normal" approval rate -- but given that filing volume continues to grow rapidly, this number could continue declining in FY2024.
EB1A (Extraordinary Ability) #
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Volume (est.) | ~8,000 | ~12,000 | ~16,000 | Continued growth |
| Approval Rate | ~72% | ~65% | ~58% | Continued decline |
| RFE Rate | Est. 20% | Est. 25% | Est. 30-35% | Continuously rising |
EB1A's approval rate fell to approximately 58% in FY2023, meaning nearly half of applicants face denial or a request for additional evidence. This reflects USCIS's tightening enforcement of the "extraordinary ability" standard -- with increasing filing volumes, adjudicators' evidence quality requirements have noticeably risen.
Priority Date Data #
| Date | EB-2 China Priority Date | EB-1 China Priority Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2022 (FY2023 start) | April 2019 | Current | FY2023 beginning |
| March 2023 | September 2019 | Current | Slow advancement |
| June 2023 | January 2020 | Current | Acceleration near year end |
| September 2023 (FY2023 end) | March 2020 | Current | End-of-fiscal-year push |
| October 2023 (FY2024 start) | June 2019 | Current | Major retrogression at new fiscal year |
| December 2023 | July 2019 | Current | Slight recovery |
Impact of Priority Date Retrogression: The EB-2 China priority date retrogressed sharply from March 2020 to June 2019 at the start of FY2024, meaning many applicants who filed and received I-140 approval during FY2023 will face longer waits. At the current pace, an applicant who received NIW approval in 2023 (with a 2023 priority date) may need to wait 4-6 years before filing I-485. This is also why simultaneously applying for EB1A (currently with no backlog) is becoming an increasingly important strategic choice.
2. Three Major Policy Changes in 2023 #
Policy Change One: NIW Premium Processing Officially Opens (March 2023) #
On March 6, 2023, USCIS officially extended Premium Processing to I-140 petitions in the EB-1 and EB-2 (including NIW) categories. The impact of this change is far-reaching:
| Dimension | Impact |
|---|---|
| Processing Time | NIW reduced from 12-18 months to 45 business days |
| Cost | Additional $2,500 |
| Filing Volume | Drove a surge in filings during the second half of FY2023 |
| Strategic Value | Allows applicants to quickly obtain results for subsequent planning |
| RFE Response | During PP, USCIS must decide within 45 days of receiving the RFE response |
The opening of PP directly caused the FY2023 second half (March-September 2023) surge in NIW filing volume. Many applicants who had previously hesitated due to long processing times filed quickly once PP became available.
Policy Change Two: USCIS Evidence Type Updates (September 12, 2023) #
On September 12, 2023, USCIS issued Policy Alert PA-2023-27, updating evidence type guidance for O-1A and EB-1A. While this update primarily targeted O-1A and EB-1A, its spirit extends to NIW adjudication as well.
Core Changes:
- Clarified the scope of "comparable evidence"
- Acknowledged that different fields have different evaluation standards -- for example, GitHub contributions and open-source projects in the AI field
- Emphasized evidence verifiability -- all claims must be supported by independent evidence
Practical Impact on Applicants: This update is good news for non-traditional academic paths (such as open-source contributors and industry researchers in AI/CS). It formally acknowledges that USCIS can consider field-specific evidence types when evaluating "extraordinary ability" or "national interest." However, it also raises the bar for evidence verifiability -- vague recommendation letters and impact claims lacking data support will increasingly fail to pass scrutiny.
Policy Change Three: Biden AI Executive Order (October 30, 2023) #
President Biden's AI Executive Order (Executive Order 14110), Section 5, specifically addresses attracting and retaining AI/STEM talent. The order directs USCIS and the State Department to streamline visa and green card processing for AI talent.
Key Content:
- Explicitly classifies AI research as a "Critical and Emerging Technologies" area
- Requires USCIS to update internal policy guidance within 90 days
- Directs streamlined adjudication standards for O-1A, EB-1A, and EB-2 NIW (in the AI field)
- Requires more flexible visa options for STEM PhD holders
Impact on NIW/EB1A Applications:
- AI/STEM applicants can cite the executive order in their Petition Letter to strengthen the "national interest" argument
- Non-traditional academic evidence (such as open-source contributions, AI competition results) may be more readily recognized
- The executive order itself does not change the law but influences USCIS's direction of enforcement
3. FY2023 Adjudication Trend Analysis #
Trend One: Recommendation Letter Quality Requirements Significantly Higher #
FY2023 adjudication data clearly shows that USCIS has significantly raised its quality expectations for recommendation letters. The following types of letters are increasingly difficult to pass scrutiny:
| Letter Problem | Previously Accepted? | FY2023 Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Generic praise lacking technical detail | Sometimes accepted | Increasingly questioned |
| All letters with highly similar content (templated) | Sometimes accepted | Seen as a signal of inauthenticity |
| Unclear relationship between recommender and applicant | Sometimes overlooked | Adjudicators examine independence more carefully |
| Claims in letters not corroborated by other evidence | Sometimes accepted | Increasingly viewed as unreliable |
Trend Two: Review Records Shifting from Bonus to Baseline #
In FY2021-2022, NIW applicants without review records still had very high approval rates. But in FY2023, an increasing number of adjudicators treat review records as basic evidence for "well positioned." Applications without review records face higher RFE or denial risk.
Trend Three: Strategic Choice Between EB1A and NIW Becomes More Important #
Against the backdrop of significant priority date retrogression, EB1A (currently with no backlog) has become dramatically more attractive for applicants born in mainland China. An increasing number of applicants are choosing the NIW + EB1A dual filing strategy, leveraging the complementary advantages of both categories.
| Scenario | Recommended Strategy | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Very strong profile (200+ citations, 10+ reviews) | NIW + EB1A dual filing | Use EB1A to pursue no-backlog route; NIW as safety net |
| Moderate profile (100+ citations, 5+ reviews) | File NIW first, apply for EB1A after building more credentials | Lock in priority date first, then strengthen profile |
| Average profile (50+ citations, limited reviews) | NIW only | Focus energy on preparing one strong application |
4. 2024 Outlook and Strategic Recommendations #
Outlook One: Filing Volume Will Continue Growing #
FY2024 (October 2023 - September 2024) NIW filing volume is projected to reach 45,000-50,000 cases. Driving factors include:
- H-1B registration volume continues to climb, further reducing selection rates
- Premium Processing convenience continues to attract new applicants
- NIW information spreads further through social media
- AI Executive Order's policy encouragement for STEM talent
Outlook Two: Approval Rates May Drop to 70-75% #
As filing volume continues to grow, USCIS adjudication standards are unlikely to relax. We project FY2024 NIW approval rates may fall to 70-75%, with EB1A potentially dropping to 50-55%.
Outlook Three: USCIS New Fee Rule Takes Effect in Early 2024 #
USCIS's new fee rule is expected to take effect between January and April 2024. Based on the published proposal:
| Fee Item | Current Fee | Expected New Fee | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| I-140 Filing Fee | $700 | $715 | +2% |
| Premium Processing | $2,500 | $2,965 | +12% |
| I-485 Filing Fee | $1,225 | $1,440 | +18% |
| I-765 (EAD) | $410 | Included in I-485 | -- |
| I-131 (AP) | $590 | Included in I-485 | -- |
Action Recommendation: If your materials are ready, consider filing before the new fee rule takes effect to lock in the current lower fees. This is especially relevant for I-485 (if your priority date is current), where the fee increase is more significant. For I-140, the increase is minimal, and there is no need to rush filing solely because of fees -- material quality always comes first.
Outlook Four: AI Executive Order Implementation Details to Roll Out #
The executive order gives agencies 90-180 days for implementation (January-April 2024). We expect USCIS to publish specific policy guidance in the first half of 2024, clarifying evidence evaluation standards and adjudication priorities for AI/STEM fields.
Outlook Five: Priority Date Situation Unlikely to Improve Short-Term #
The EB-2 China priority date retrogressed sharply at the start of FY2024 and is unlikely to advance significantly in the short term. We expect the date to fluctuate between June 2019 and 2020 throughout the fiscal year. EB-1 currently has no backlog, but if EB1A filing volume continues to grow, the emergence of an EB-1 backlog by the end of FY2024 cannot be ruled out.
5. 2024 Application Strategy Recommendations #
Based on the above analysis, here are our strategic recommendations for applicants at different stages:
For Applicants About to File #
- Recommendation letters are the top priority: Ensure at least 3-4 high-quality independent recommendation letters, each containing specific technical evaluations and verifiable facts
- Review records are indispensable: Accumulate at least 5+ review records before filing
- "National interest" arguments must be specific: Avoid generic statements; support arguments with data, policy documents, and real-world examples
- Consider Premium Processing: With processing times extending, PP can significantly reduce wait times
For Applicants Just Starting Preparation #
- Develop a 6-12 month preparation plan: Do not rush to file an insufficiently prepared application
- Actively build review records: Begin registering on publisher reviewer systems now
- Intentionally build academic networks: Attend conferences, contact authors who have cited your papers, lay the groundwork for recommender relationships
- Continue publishing papers: Keep submitting papers during the preparation period to increase publication count and citation volume
For Applicants with Approved I-140 Waiting for Priority Date #
- Maintain lawful status: Ensure your H-1B, O-1A, or other nonimmigrant visa status remains uninterrupted
- Consider EB1A dual filing: If your credentials have strengthened since NIW approval, file EB1A to potentially bypass the backlog
- Monitor priority date movement: When the priority date approaches current, prepare I-485 materials in advance
- Preserve I-140 approval notice: If you change jobs, you will need to file for I-140 portability with the new employer
2024 Election Uncertainty: 2024 is a U.S. presidential election year, and immigration policy direction could shift significantly after the election. Regardless of the outcome, the best strategy for those already preparing or planning NIW/EB1A applications is to act as soon as possible under the current policy environment rather than waiting for policy changes. Already-filed I-140 petitions will not be retroactively affected by policy changes (barring major legislative changes, which are unlikely in the short term).
6. 2023 Key Events Timeline #
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2023 | USCIS announces PP expansion to I-140 EB-1/EB-2 | Major positive development |
| Mar 6, 2023 | NIW Premium Processing officially opens | Directly drove surge in filing volume |
| Mar 2023 | FY2024 H-1B registrations hit record high | More people turn to NIW |
| Jun 2023 | USCIS publishes new fee rule proposal | Signals fee increases ahead |
| Sep 12, 2023 | USCIS Policy Alert PA-2023-27 | Evidence type updates |
| Sep 30, 2023 | FY2023 ends | NIW filings reach 39,810 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | FY2024 begins; EB-2 priority date retrogresses sharply | Back to June 2019 |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Biden AI Executive Order signed | AI/STEM talent policy boost |
| Dec 2023 | USCIS fee rule enters final review | Expected to take effect early 2024 |
Frequently Asked Questions #
Was 2023 a good or bad year to apply for NIW?
On balance, 2023 was still a relatively good time, though the window is narrowing. On the positive side: an 80% approval rate, while lower than before, is still reasonably high in absolute terms; PP opening significantly shortened wait times; the AI Executive Order provided policy support for STEM fields. On the negative side: competition intensified, adjudication tightened, and priority dates retrogressed. Overall, if your credentials are ready, filing sooner is better than waiting -- the policy environment will only become more uncertain.
Will the FY2024 NIW approval rate continue to decline?
We project the FY2024 NIW approval rate may fall to 70-75%. The main reason is continued filing volume growth (projected 45,000-50,000 cases) while USCIS adjudication standards are unlikely to relax. However, the specific number depends on multiple factors: whether the AI Executive Order's implementation policies favor STEM fields, USCIS staffing and adjudication efficiency, and the quality distribution of new applicants. For well-qualified applicants, individual approval probability will still be far above the average.
Will the EB-2 China priority date advance in 2024?
Short-term prospects are not optimistic. The sharp retrogression to June 2019 at the start of FY2024 reflects the massive supply-demand imbalance in EB-2 visa numbers. We expect the FY2024 priority date to fluctuate between June 2019 and 2020, and it is unlikely to return to FY2023's end-of-year level (March 2020). Long-term, priority date recovery requires Congress to increase visa numbers (through legislation like the Eagle Act), but the prospects for these bills remain uncertain.
I have already filed my I-140 but have not received a result yet. Do I need to supplement my materials?
If you have already filed I-140 and are awaiting adjudication (without using PP), you do not need to proactively supplement materials. USCIS will adjudicate based on the materials submitted at filing. If the adjudicator determines additional evidence is needed, they will issue an RFE (Request for Evidence), at which point you have 87 days to submit supplemental materials. However, during the waiting period, we recommend continuing to accumulate new achievements (papers, citations, review records), as these can be submitted as supplemental evidence if you receive an RFE.
What potential impact could the 2024 election have on NIW/EB1A applications?
The 2024 election is a significant uncertainty factor. If the current administration is re-elected, the current STEM-friendly policy direction would likely continue (including implementation of the AI Executive Order). If there is a change of administration, the new government could adjust immigration policy direction -- the AI Executive Order could be revoked or modified, and USCIS adjudication priorities could shift. However, it is important to emphasize that NIW and EB1A legal frameworks (the Dhanasar framework and ten criteria) are established by AAO case law and will not change with a presidential transition. What changes is the degree of leniency or strictness at the USCIS enforcement level.
Conclusion #
2023 was a year of dramatic change in the NIW/EB1A application landscape. Surging filing volumes, tightening adjudication, frequent policy updates, and sharp priority date retrogression -- these changes collectively shaped a more competitive but still opportunity-rich environment.
Key lessons from 2023:
- Material quality matters more than ever -- with surging filing volumes, only high-quality applications will stand out
- Recommendation letters and review records are core competitive advantages -- USCIS adjudicators increasingly rely on these two evidence types to distinguish strong cases from weak ones
- Dual filing strategy is increasingly valuable -- EB-2 priority date retrogression makes EB1A's no-backlog advantage even more prominent
- Policy environment is favorable but uncertain -- the AI Executive Order is a positive signal, but the election brings uncertainty; act sooner rather than later
Looking ahead to 2024, we recommend that all qualified applicants prepare actively and act promptly. GloryAbroad will continue monitoring policy changes and adjudication trends, providing researchers with independent recommender matching and journal review invitation services. We wish every applicant smooth progress on their green card journey in 2024.